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By Bert G Hickman; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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The baseline entries in these tables are compared with values that would arise from specific policy decisions (as will be explained in the next section). Meanwhile, let us consider details of the performance of each country (or region) for the baseline scenario. It is evident that all countries exhibit a common cyclical slowdown in GDP growth during 1980. The figures are still only modest for 1981, but indicate some recovery from the 1980 values. The respective expansion paths projected for 1981 reinforce earlier con­ clusions about growth prospects and lead into sustained improvement of performance during the later years of this forecast.

Heinemann, London, pp. 657-669. G. and Lima, A. (1979). Price determination and transmission of inflation in the LINK system. A. Sawyer (Editor), Modelling the International Transmission Mechanism. NorthHolland, Amsterdam, pp. 97-127. G. and Schleicher, S. (1978). The interdependence of national economies and the syn­ chronization of economic fluctuations: evidence from the LINK project. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 114(4): 642-708. N. R. (1974). Stability in the international economy: the LINK experience.

The individual models and research institutions involved in the pro­ ject are listed in Table 1. LINK Central, located at the Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, serves as the central computer repository for the associated models and databank and bears primary responsibility for forecasts and simulations of the system. 5 Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Philadelphia UNCTAD, Geneva Quarterly Annual Annual KYQ79 Forecasting Model of Japan Netherlands LINK Model SOVMOD II 462 461 698 307 359 172 164 275 178 75 257 219 232 196 92 330 Endogenous 463 164 244 302 180 104 133 147 143 68 103 194 160 84 71 400 Exogenous Number of variables'* ^Including linkage variables.

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